Iran strike will shock global economy

"A raid on Iran's nuclear facilities will only delay, not destroy, Iran's nuclear program."

Mon Feb 6, 2012 3:6PM GMT

Whoever attacks Iran's nuclear infrastructure is really making the decision to go to war with Iran."
Former chief US negotiator at strategic arms reduction talks Richard Burt

Western political experts say a possible Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities will deliver a painful shock to the global economy and have unexpected effects on international peace and security.

"Whoever attacks Iran's nuclear infrastructure is really making the decision to go to war with Iran," former chief US negotiator at strategic arms reduction talks Richard Burt told Reuters on Sunday on the sidelines of the 48th Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Germany, a forum and a venue for the world's thinkers and decision-makers on security policy.

The expert said a strike on Iran and Iran's response, including attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for oil shipments, would lead to a sharp rise in oil prices that could seriously harm international economy.

He said that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would entail a range of great, negative uncertainties adding, “This is one reason why consistently the joint chiefs of staff of the uniformed military in the US do not like the idea of attacking Iran.”

The expert stated that Israel must think long and hard before embarking on an attack because many suspect that it would spark a broader conflict and have wide-ranging and destabilizing consequences.

For example, he noted, some regional powers aspiring nuclear weapons might respond to a strike on Iran by redoubling efforts to get the bomb as a deterrent.

Ken Pollack, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, also told Reuters that as a result of such attack, Iran will expel International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors and quit the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), ending any possibility of a negotiated solution to the nuclear issue.

"There is not a country on Earth that is going to blame them for doing that; they are all going to blame Israel. Once Iran is out of the NPT, the sanctions are gone," he added.

Meanwhile, Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at Washington's Center for International and Strategic Studies, noted that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities will only delay, not destroy, Iran's nuclear program.

Washington and Tel Aviv have repeatedly threatened Tehran with the "option" of a military strike, based on their allegation that Iran's nuclear program may include a covert military aspect.